On August 11, US time, the Rays’ Ryan Yarbrough showed incredible dominance against the Mariners until the eighth inning. Through eight innings, he had only thrown 89 pitches, giving up 3 hits, no walks, and striking out 8. Fans across the stadium were eagerly anticipating Yarbrough finishing the game perfectly. Sure enough, Ryan Yarbrough returned to the mound in the 9th inning, ready to face the final batters. He only needed 10 pitches to retire the league’s speedsters Mallex Smith and J.P. Crawford. With a pitch count of 99, he was about to face catcher Omar Narvaez.

Then, the coach walked up to make a pitching change. We can see how helpless Ryan Yarbrough’s reaction was at the time.

via Gfycat

Anyone would have this question: why didn’t they let Ryan Yarbrough continue pitching to earn the complete game?

Ryan Yarbrough is certainly not alone. In recent years, more and more pitchers have been pulled while on the verge of a complete game, even when their pitch counts weren’t particularly high. Examples include Max Scherzer, who was pulled in 2018 after 8 innings and 13 strikeouts with only 99 pitches; Justin Verlander, pulled after 8 innings and 11 strikeouts with 100 pitches; and even more famously, Rich Hill, who threw a 7-inning perfect game in 2016 but was pulled at the start of the eighth inning!

Complete Games by Year: 1980-2019

As you can see, since 1980, the number of complete games achieved each year has steadily decreased, falling from 856 games in 1980 to just 42 last year. So far this year, there have been 40 complete games, and it’s unlikely to set a new low record before the season ends. However, the trend of fewer and fewer complete games is still evident.

Year AL Cy Young Winner Complete Games Year AL Cy Young Winner Complete Games
1991 Roger Clemens 13 2006 Johan Santana 1
1992 Dennis Eckersley(non-starter) 0 2007 CC Sabathia 4
1993 Jack McDowell 10 2008 Cliff Lee 4
1994 David Cone 4 2009 Zack Greinke 6
1995 Randy Johnson 6 2010 Félix Hernández 6
1996 Pat Hentgen 10 2011 Justin Verlander 4
1997 Roger Clemens 9 2012 David Price 2
1998 Roger Clemens 5 2013 Max Scherzer 0
1999 Pedro Martinez 5 2014 Corey Kluber 3
2000 Pedro Martinez 7 2015 Dallas Keuchel 3
2001 Roger Clemens 0 2016 Rick Porcello 3
2002 Barry Zito 1 2017 Corey Kluber 5
2003 Roy Halladay 9 2018 Blake Snell 0
2004 Johan Santana 1      
2005 Bartolo Colon 2      

 

However, this phenomenon isn’t just a league-wide average. If we look at the complete game totals for AL Cy Young Award winners from 1990 to the present, we can see that Cy Young winners in the 90s often had complete game totals in the double digits. However, since 2011, no AL Cy Young winner has had more than 5 complete games. This indicates that the decline in complete games is not merely a league trend; even the league’s strongest pitchers no longer have the opportunity to challenge for complete games.

Fewer Pitches for Starting Pitches

According to an ESPN column, in 2018, only one starting pitcher threw over 130 pitches in a single game (Sean Newcomb of the Braves), and two starting pitchers (Tyson Ross, Trevor Bauer) threw over 125 pitches. However, if we go back to 1988, over 18 pitchers threw more than 150 pitches in a single game that year. Even five years ago, 17 starting pitchers still threw over 125 pitches in a single season.

Let’s look at the 95th percentile for starting pitcher pitch counts in recent years (representing the pitch count for the Top 5% of outings).

Year 95th Percentile Pitch Count
1988 131
1990 127
2000 124
2010 117
2014 114
2015 112
2016 112
2017 111
2018 109

Simply put, this table shows that in 1988, the top 5% of starting pitcher outings had a pitch count of 131, but by last year, that number had dropped to just 109, a decrease of 22 pitches. This indicates that coaches are no longer willing to let starting pitchers exhaust their arms. On one hand, this could be preparation for the postseason, to prevent key starting pitchers from getting injured. On the other hand, in recent years, MLB has placed increasing importance on the bullpen. A simple data comparison reveals that, from the past to the present, bullpen pitchers consistently outperform starters in metrics such as ERA, K/9, and HR/9. While starters and relievers have different roles and their abilities cannot be directly compared, from the perspective of winning games, if the bullpen has effective setup pitchers for the seventh and eighth innings who can secure late-game outs, why would a coach make a starting pitcher struggle through?

Increased Pitches Per Inning

In fact, beyond coaches being more cautious with pitchers, pitchers themselves are also less efficient with their pitches compared to 30 years ago.

Average Pitches Per Inning by Year

The chart above shows the average pitches per inning for pitchers each year. In 1988, pitchers averaged only 14.97 pitches per inning, and in 1990, it reached a low of 14.22 pitches. However, this year, the current average pitches per inning for pitchers has risen to 16.92 pitches. In other words, this year, pitchers are throwing 2.7 more pitches per inning compared to 1990. Don’t underestimate the difference of these two or three pitches; calculating based on a starting pitcher’s typical 5 innings of responsibility, this means our starting pitchers this year are throwing about 13 more pitches per game than 30 years ago. That’s nearly the difference of an entire inning’s worth of pitches!

As for why there’s such a difference? The author believes it’s related to the MLB’s annually increasing strikeout rate. In 2010, the league-wide strikeout rate was only 18.5%, while this year it has soared to 22.7%, an increase of over four percentage points.

Generally, the more strikeouts a pitcher records, the more pitches they consume. Simply put, a pitcher needs at least 3 pitches to strike someone out, but a groundout or flyout can often be achieved with just one pitch. Therefore, generating more strikeouts naturally means more pitches thrown on average. In fact, this year, the two teams with the highest K/9 values in MLB, the Rays and the Red Sox, also rank among the top two teams for average pitches per plate appearance.

Conclusion

Due to the increasing protection of pitchers by coaching staffs, and the rise in pitch counts caused by higher strikeout rates, I believe we will see fewer and fewer complete games in the future, unless pitchers are chasing records like shutouts, no-hitters, or perfect games. However, legendary Yankees Hall of Fame pitcher Whitey Ford once commented on complete games:

A complete game gave me the greatest satisfaction. It meant more to me than all the other records. Pitching was an art. I was never a pitcher who could overpower hitters with velocity, so I had to know what the hitters were guessing and mix all my pitches… It was like a chess game, and if your team won and you completed the game, that start brought more satisfaction.

For a starting pitcher, a complete game symbolizes complete dominance of the match, and it might be an achievement many pitchers today aspire to reach once in their lifetime. For fans, as coaching staffs become increasingly cautious with starting pitcher management, opportunities to witness a pitcher’s masterful complete game will become rarer. However, in its place, we will see a different kind of high-intensity, strategic bullpen management!

Finally, do you know which active pitcher has thrown the most complete games?

That’s right! It’s CC Sabathia, who is featured on the article’s cover image!

Main References

Sam Miller. How many complete games will be thrown in 2019? Thirty? Ten? None?. ESPN. [https://www.espn.com/mlb/story//id/26295852/how-many-complete-games-thrown-2019-thirty-ten-none](https://www.espn.com/mlb/story//id/26295852/how-many-complete-games-thrown-2019-thirty-ten-none)

Other References

Baseball Reference、FanGraphs、Robert Kuenster. Pitching A Complete Game Is A Vanishing Act In Baseball. Forbes：https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertkuenster/2018/07/10/pitching-a-complete-game-is-a-vanishing-act-in-baseball/#3a8d250f7e58

GIF Source：Tony Wolfe. Kevin Cash’s Cold Call. FanGraphs. https://gfycat.com/soupymiserlyduckling-sp-dt-2019-08-11t16-10-00-04-00

Cover Image Source: MLB Yankees Official Website PC: Stephen Brashear/Getty Images