Lost Eye for the Ball? Joey Votto's New Challenges

A six-time All-Star in his career, a former National League MVP, and voted into the top ten for the league MVP six times, the Reds’ veteran leader Joey Votto is renowned on the field not only for his incredibly kind demeanor towards his own fans but also for his less-than-friendly persona towards opposing fans. His astonishing hitting prowess, his “human K-Zone” like eye for the ball, and his strict self-discipline have all contributed to his extraordinary achievements to date.

Joey Votto Exchanges Jerseys with a Fan

Joey Votto Pretends to Throw a Foul Ball to a Phillies Fan

However, many people likely noticed that Votto’s hitting statistics sharply declined last year. Excluding seasons where he didn’t play a full schedule, Votto has failed to reach 20 home runs for two consecutive years since 2018. His batting average was a career-low 0.261, and his wRC+ of 101 barely kept him at league average. Many have questioned if this is related to Votto’s age, as he had quietly turned 35 before the start of last season. Such performance can certainly be explained by a decline in ability.

Has His Eye for the Ball Disappeared Too?

Nevertheless, intuitively, if Votto’s decline is simply due to age, then his power or quality of contact should be primarily affected, and his precise eye for the ball should not be significantly impacted. However, Votto’s walk rate last year was also a new low since 2009, which made me quite curious. Below is a line graph of Votto’s career walk rate year by year:

This year, Joey Votto’s walk rate was only 12.5%. Although still much higher than the league average, for Votto, who is known for his plate discipline, it is still a significant decline.

A deeper analysis of Votto’s plate discipline metrics in recent years reveals that last year, Votto’s O-contact % (the rate at which he makes contact with pitches outside the strike zone) and Chase Contact % (similar to O-contact %, also the rate at which he makes contact with pitches outside the strike zone) both showed significant declines. This indicates that Votto is no longer able to effectively foul off pitches outside the strike zone. Furthermore, his Whiff % (swinging strike rate) was also a new high since 2016. However, Votto’s Z-contact % (the rate at which he makes contact with pitches inside the strike zone) remained at a high level, meaning Votto can still handle pitches within the strike zone very well.

Joey Votto’s Career O-contact %

Joey Votto’s Career Chase Contact %

Joey Votto’s Career Z-contact %

Pitches within the strike zone are naturally easier to hit, and Votto can hit them with ease, just as before. However, his inability to successfully foul off bad pitches when behind in the count is very likely the main reason for Votto’s decreased walk rate.

Additionally, Votto’s swing rate at bad pitches last year was also the highest in recent years. Although still significantly better than the league average, it increased by nearly 5 percentage points compared to the previous year.

Votto’s Self-Adjustment

At this point, I cannot explain why Votto’s plate discipline has declined so significantly. However, I noticed that Votto made a very noticeable adjustment to his batting stance mid-season, and this adjustment also seems to have significantly improved Votto’s plate discipline in the second half of the season.

Joey Votto’s Batting Stance in the First Half of the 2019 Season

Joey Votto’s Batting Stance in the Second Half of the 2019 Season

I reviewed Joey Votto’s batting videos and found that he made a significant adjustment to his batting stance around July 18th. Previously, Votto’s legs were bent almost 90 degrees in his batting setup. After the adjustment, both legs were straighter than before, with his right leg initially almost completely straight, only bending slightly when preparing to swing.

Why do I suspect this change is related to his plate discipline?

Because since August, Votto’s walk rate has arguably returned to its previous levels, with his walk rates for August and September being 15.0% and 17.2%, respectively.

Did His Quality of Contact Improve Too?

In addition to an increased walk rate, Joey Votto’s quality of contact also improved in the second half of the season, which could also be an improvement brought about by the change in his stance. Before the second half, Votto’s exit velocity was 87.5 mph, and his fly ball distance was only 310 feet. After changing his stance in the second half, his exit velocity increased to 90.9 mph, and his fly ball distance also grew to 322 feet. However, these improvements in quality of contact did not directly translate into actual performance. Votto’s batting performance in the second half, such as wOBA (weighted on-base average), wRC+, batting average, and slugging percentage, were all similar to the first half. As a result, many people might not have noticed Votto’s significant growth in the second half.

Conclusion

Of course, we cannot directly infer an absolute causal relationship between Joey Votto’s increased walk rate and improved quality of contact in the second half and his batting stance. However, from a chronological perspective, we can reasonably suspect a correlation between the two. What we can also be sure of is that Joey Votto is actively trying to make changes, and his growth can be seen in various aspects. Therefore, I am relatively optimistic about Joey Votto’s performance this season, believing he will have a certain degree of rebound. Perhaps he won’t reach the level of consistently being a top-five MVP candidate as in previous years, but he will still be a top-tier hitter in the league.

However, Votto had another significant decline last year: his ability to handle off-speed pitches rapidly declined. This phenomenon did not improve in the second half and even showed a worsening trend; throughout August, Votto was completely helpless against off-speed pitches, with a perfect 0 batting average. This will undoubtedly be a persistent issue Votto must confront in the 2020 season.

Joey Votto was never a power hitter with exceptional slugging ability, and he surely knows this well. In an interview with Hall of Famer John Smoltz (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T3jK3LO5ytg), he mentioned that he gradually wanted to pursue overall efficiency on the field rather than solely chasing home runs. This is likely why he spent a lot of time developing his plate discipline. From his historical data, it can be seen that his plate discipline has continuously improved since he reached the major leagues, combined with his ability to hit for extra bases, making him a feared hitter by pitchers in recent years. I don’t believe plate discipline is an ability that is easily lost. The second-half data also shows that Joey Votto has slowly regained his familiar plate discipline advantage. Coupled with his superb hitting skills, we have a great chance to look forward to a resurgent Joey Votto in 2020!

References:

FanGraphs, MLB Baseball Savant, Baseball Reference

Jay Jaffe. (2019). What’s up with Joey Votto?. Fangraphs. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/whats-up-with-joey-votto/

Video Sources:

MLB Baseball Savant

Fox Sports Ohio：https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ivu0bgwqOec

MLB Network：https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GsSD6wNuJCo

Image Sources:

Reds Official Website PC：Rob Tringali/MLB Photos、Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images