Yordan Alvarez's Dead Zone: Finding the Weaknesses in a Perfect Rookie Season

Yordan Alvarez, a name you might have heard but aren’t too familiar with, has already become an indispensable part of the Astros’ powerful lineup. In 2016, the Astros acquired the then 19-year-old outfielder Yordan Alvarez in exchange for relief pitcher Josh Fields. For the Dodgers, although Josh Fields contributed significantly to them later, in Game 2 of the 2017 World Series, Josh Fields gave up back-to-back home runs to Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa in the 10th inning of extra innings, becoming a stepping stone for the Astros’ championship.

For the Astros, they not only won the World Series but also found a gem in Yordan Alvarez.

MLB Savant’s website describes Yordan Alvarez as follows:

雖然身高6呎5吋(約1.96公尺)，體重225磅(約103公斤)，但他揮棒幅度小且能扎實地擊中球，且他揮棒的幅度、力道、往上的角度讓他能擊出很完美的飛球，不必奮力揮擊就能擊出全壘打…..

He has lived up to expectations, making his MLB debut in early June and, as of now, has played 43 games, hitting 14 home runs in 158 at-bats. His slash line is a terrifying .348/.429/.703, and his wRC+ is an astonishing 196. Although his limited at-bats disqualify Alvarez from official batting leaderboards, when compared to current players on the leaderboard, even hitting phenom Mike Trout only has a wRC+ of 186, and Alvarez’s slugging percentage is second only to Christian Yelich.

In terms of advanced statistics, Yordan Alvarez’s Barrel% (Barrels / Batted Ball Events, which I introduced in a previous article) ranks 9th in all of MLB, indicating his excellent exit velocity and launch angle. Additionally, in wOBA, an advanced hitting statistic I frequently use (which assigns different weights to each batting outcome such as doubles, triples, home runs, etc., and can be converted to measure a hitter’s run contribution), Yordan Alvarez ranks 1st among all MLB players with 150 or more plate appearances!

These are all elite-level numbers, completely unlike what a rookie would typically produce. Even though he only debuted in MLB in early June, given his red-hot performance and the Astros’ strong record, it’s not entirely impossible for him to claim this year’s less competitive AL Rookie of the Year award.

Hitting Blind Spot

Such nearly perfect statistics are truly incredible, especially since Alvarez’s initial hitting evaluations weren’t top-tier. Therefore, I wanted to investigate if Yordan Alvarez has any weaknesses.

That’s when I discovered Alvarez’s “zero” point!

Yordan Alvarez’s Batting Average Against Different Pitches (Catcher’s View)

As a left-handed hitter, Alvarez has yet to hit any singles in the high-and-outside white box area (hereinafter referred to as the zero point) this year!

You might say that a poor batting average could just be bad luck. However, a closer analysis of the zero point reveals that Yordan Alvarez isn’t just unlucky when it comes to not hitting singles.

Alvarez has faced 20 pitches in the zero point:

1. He has never hit a Hard-hit ball (exit velocity of 95mph or higher). In fact, the average exit velocity in this zone is only 86.2mph.
2. He has only hit fly balls.
3. The average launch angle for fly balls is 44 degrees!

Statistically, none of the balls hit with the same exit velocity (86mph) and launch angle (44 degrees) across MLB have resulted in a hit!

Considering the three points above, although the sample size is small, currently, when Yordan Alvarez faces this “zero” point, he can at best only hit weak fly balls to the outfield.

Opposite-Field Hitting Ability

Although the data shows that Alvarez’s opposite-field hitting percentage (25%) is similar to the league average (25.5%):

However, we can see that when the left-handed Yordan Alvarez hits the ball to the opposite-field left field, it rarely results in a hit, and he has almost never hit a home run to left field.

The same question arises again: not getting hits might just be bad luck. So, we can use exit velocity to analyze the quality of Alvarez’s batted balls to the left, center, and right fields, respectively:

The results show that Alvarez’s opposite-field hitting quality to the left side is indeed worse than the other two, with his exit velocity ranking only 71st among all left-handed hitters. However, I’m also curious: is the quality of every type of opposite-field hit (fly ball, line drive, ground ball) poor for Alvarez?

We can see that Alvarez’s exit velocity on fly balls to left field is less than 90mph, ranking only 60th among left-handed hitters, which explains why he doesn’t hit opposite-field home runs. However, it’s worth noting that, although the sample size is small, Alvarez hits opposite-field line drives exceptionally well, so Alvarez should avoid elevating the ball when hitting to the opposite field. Furthermore, while Yordan Alvarez is a powerful left-handed fly-ball hitter, it’s expected that his ground ball exit velocities wouldn’t be great (because he intends to hit the ball into the air, and ground balls are a result of poor contact). Still, his ground ball exit velocity to the left side is particularly poor, to an extent that cannot be ignored.

Future Challenges Yordan Alvarez May Face

Firstly, the weakness of not being able to hit singles from the zero point will undoubtedly be exploited by pitchers in the future. However, according to the wOBA distribution by pitch location, the areas near the zero point all have considerably high wOBA values. Therefore, if pitchers want to attack Yordan Alvarez’s zero point, their control must be extremely precise, otherwise, any mistake will be capitalized on by Alvarez.

Secondly, I believe that while Yordan Alvarez’s opposite-field hitting percentage is not low, the quality of his opposite-field fly balls and ground balls is poor. In response, pitchers can throw the ball low and away to force Alvarez to hit weak opposite-field ground balls. Additionally, leveraging this characteristic, I believe that both the third baseman and the left fielder can play slightly shallower. On one hand, Yordan Alvarez’s ground ball exit velocity is not very fast, so playing shallower can handle these weak ground balls. On the other hand, Yordan Alvarez doesn’t hit opposite-field fly balls very well, so the left fielder doesn’t need to play too deep. Against hard-hit but not far-flying line drives, a shallower left fielder can also complete the play more quickly.

Thirdly, Yordan Alvarez’s BABIP (to recap, BABIP refers to the probability of a batted ball in play becoming a hit, used to gauge a hitter’s luck, and I also mentioned this statistic in another article) is unlikely to consistently remain at a high level of 0.406. Furthermore, his current wOBA of 0.459 is also a significant difference from the 0.413 predicted by the MLB Savant system, suggesting his future batting performance will likely regress. Nevertheless, a wOBA of 0.413 is still a monster-level performance, and Yordan Alvarez’s hitting prowess should absolutely not be underestimated.

Currently, the Astros appear to have a very high chance of making the playoffs, and barring any surprises, Yordan Alvarez should be included in the 25-man playoff roster. The only concern is that, due to his physique, Alvarez’s defensive ability will be a major weakness. This year, he primarily serves as the designated hitter for the Astros. If the Astros successfully reach the World Series, in the latter half of games with a lead, players with better defensive skills like Josh Reddick might replace him in left field to secure the victory for the Astros.

Finally, I want to state that I’m not an Astros hater, haha XD. Because the more I look at this, the more it seems like I’m scouting for the Dodgers (???), so I want to show everyone Alvarez’s impressive form to clear my name.

Data Sources: MLB Savant, Fangraphs, Baseball Reference

Video Sources: MLB Official, Highlight Heaven: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PSMeh1ZtT68&t=288s

Cover Image Source: Astros Official Website Gallery PC: Bob Levey/Getty Images