Can the Yankees Crack the Astros' Cy Young Wall? A Spin Rate Analysis

With Gerrit Cole’s perfect 8-inning dominance and nearly 11 consecutive games with double-digit strikeouts, the Rays’ lineup had no room to perform. They couldn’t pull off an upset in the crucial Game 5, handing over the ALCS qualification to the Astros, who have been soaring like a rocket this year. However, the Astros’ next opponent is another AL powerhouse, the Yankees, who have already swept the Twins and are poised for battle. With injured players gradually returning to the lineup late in the season, the Yankees’ roster has become more complete and deep. In the first round of the playoffs, the Astros’ biggest highlight was undoubtedly the stellar performance of their two ace starters. Can they maintain their usual dominance against a Yankees team surrounded by powerful hitters?

The Astros’ Spin Rate Advantage

Setting aside the Astros’ two ace starters for a moment, the defining characteristic of the entire Astros pitching staff is their incredibly high spin rate. This season, regardless of pitch type, the Astros’ pitching staff ranks first in MLB with an average spin rate of 2402 rpm (revolutions per minute). But is a high spin rate good for every pitch type? This point is indeed somewhat controversial. Therefore, we can compare only the two pitch types where a higher spin rate is currently recognized as leading to more dominance: fastballs and curveballs. Even when limiting the pitch types to these two, the Astros still lead all of MLB by a significant margin. Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander, with their top-tier spin rates and velocities, have contributed significantly to this statistic. Trailing closely behind the Astros are the Dodgers, who were just surprisingly eliminated the day before yesterday, sparking much discussion. These two teams’ pitching spin rates are far ahead of all other teams from third place onwards.

In fact, looking at the table above, it might seem that there isn’t a clear correlation between spin rate and pitcher effectiveness, as the table includes quite a few bottom-ranked teams. Indeed, spin rate represents only one aspect of pitching, and how to effectively utilize spin rate is also a major challenge for pitchers. Some pitchers, despite having high spin rates, can’t make good use of them, while low-spin pitchers can leverage the ball’s downward movement to induce groundouts. However, the current consensus is that, overall, high-spin fastballs can create a “rising” effect, effectively causing hitters to swing and miss; and high-spin breaking balls can generate more movement. Therefore, high spin rate is definitely one of the advantages of the Astros’ powerful pitching staff.

Why discuss spin rate? Because the Astros’ spin rate advantage is so pronounced that I wanted to analyze from a spin rate perspective whether the Yankees have any chance of breaking through the Astros’ Cy Young-caliber pitching staff.

Yankees’ Performance Against High-Spin Pitches

Actually, the Yankees are not the team best at hitting high-spin pitches. When it comes to hitting high-spin four-seam fastballs (>=2500 rpm), the Yankees’ weighted on-base average (wOBA) ranks only 8th in MLB. For high-spin curveballs (>=2900 rpm), their weighted on-base average (wOBA) is only at the 7th best level in MLB. In contrast, the other two NL playoff teams occupy the top two spots in the league for these two metrics (Cardinals’ wOBA against high-spin four-seamers: 2nd; Nationals’ wOBA against high-spin curveballs: 1st).

2019 Team wOBA vs. High-Spin Four-Seam Fastballs (>=2500 rpm) Ranking

2019 Team wOBA vs. High-Spin Curveballs (>=2900 rpm) Ranking

Mike Ford: A Potential Secret Weapon?

However, if we look solely at individual performance, although the sample size is small, the Yankees player who hits high-spin four-seam fastballs best is actually this unexpected individual: Mike Ford.

This year, Mike Ford faced 25 high-spin four-seam fastballs (>=2500 rpm). He hit two of them out of the park, along with one single and two walks, resulting in a terrifying wOBA of 0.780.

When discussing the playoff roster at the end of the season, Mike Ford was always a headache-inducing candidate. Although Ford is just a rookie and not particularly imposing physically, he perfectly filled the Yankees’ injury-riddled roster in the second half of the season. Moreover, his monthly batting average in September was as high as .353, his slugging percentage exceeded .700, he hit 12 home runs in 143 at-bats, his average exit velocity was close to 92 mph, and his full-season wRC+ was an impressive 137. However, Ford has limited defensive positions, primarily first base or designated hitter, and the Yankees’ infield is already stacked with talent, leaving little room for Ford.

Consequently, Ford could only enter the playoffs as a bench player, and his main competition was Luke Voit, who had just returned from injury. From September 15th to the end of the season, Luke Voit accumulated only one hit in 32 consecutive at-bats. However, he has a good on-base ability and has proven his powerful hitting with enough at-bats in the past, and he performed quite well in last year’s playoffs. We all know that the Yankees coaching staff ultimately chose Luke Voit over Mike Ford for the first round of the playoffs. According to Aaron Boone’s interview, Luke Voit’s pinch-hitting performance and his play in high-leverage situations were key to his selection. Boone also mentioned that Voit could be used late in games against Twins’ left-handed closer Taylor Rogers. (However, the Yankees easily defeated the Twins in the end, and Voit didn’t get any pinch-hitting opportunities.)

As you read this, I wonder if something has occurred to you: the Astros’ only left-handed pitcher is Wade Miley; they almost exclusively dominate opponents with powerful right-handed pitchers! Left-handed hitter Mike Ford might have an advantage over Luke Voit in the ALCS, especially given Mike Ford’s hot streak late in the season and his seemingly formidable performance against high-spin fastballs. I believe the Yankees have strong reasons to include him in the ALCS roster.

However, if the Yankees ultimately don’t add Mike Ford to the roster, who else on the team is good at hitting high-spin pitches?

2019 Yankees Players’ wOBA vs. High-Spin Four-Seam Fastballs (5+ PAs)

Looking at the table above, excluding those unlikely to play in the postseason, various star players on the starting roster, such as Edwin Encarnacion, Gary Sanchez, and even the recently red-hot DJ LeMahieu and Gleyber Torres, have actually struggled against high-spin four-seam fastballs this season. If we had to pick a more capable player, it would probably be Aaron Judge. This year, Aaron Judge faced 87 high-spin four-seam fastballs, achieving a high wOBA of 0.451 and hitting three home runs. Although the sample size is small against high-spin curveballs, he also has a wOBA of 0.491. However, Aaron Judge will be a focal point for pitchers regardless, so if the Yankees truly want to deploy a surprise weapon, I think Mike Ford is definitely the one XD

Conclusion

From the perspective of pitching spin rate, the Astros have the upper hand, as the Yankees don’t appear to be a team that excels at hitting high-spin pitches. However, let’s not forget that the Yankees are arguably the team with the second-best offensive firepower in all of MLB, boasting the 2nd most home runs and wRC+ in the league, and the 3rd highest WAR. Furthermore, in high-stakes postseason games, any mistake can be severely punished, and even ace pitchers are not a guarantee of victory (look at Kershaw, look at Verlander in Game 4, look at Scherzer who almost blew the Wild Card game). In any case, everyone should look forward to the showdown between these two AL powerhouses!

References:

MLB savant、Baseball Reference、FanGraphs

JajaBojangles. A basic look at spin rate and what it means for pitches. SB Nation.

Joe LoGrippo. Why the Yankees chose Luke Voit over Mike Ford in the ALDS. SB Nation.

Image Sources:

Yankees official website PC：Gail Burton/AP

Cover image source：

Yankees official website PC：Kathy Willens/AP