Shane Bieber: The Command Ace Who Doesn't Command the Strike Zone

Shane Bieber of the Indians, a product of the prestigious UC Santa Barbara, was drafted by the Indians in the fourth round of the 2016 MLB draft. In the minor leagues, he already showcased his astonishing control, setting a record in High-A with a single-season BB% of just 1.10%, the lowest in the Carolina League since 2006, which translates to an incredible BB/9 of 0.40. Prospect Digest’s scouting reports even compared him to Kyle Hendricks in his minor league days, with Shane Bieber’s control being even superior:

This year, his second in the major leagues, he has already posted excellent numbers. In 168.1 innings pitched, his ERA is 3.26, his WHIP is an exceptionally low 1.00, ranking 6th among 139 starting pitchers in MLB, and he has as many as 205 strikeouts, also ranking 6th in MLB. According to FanGraphs statistics, his WAR this year also ranks in the top 10 among starting pitchers. Based on his performance this year, he might even be a strong contender for the Cy Young Award, and he already won the All-Star Game MVP this year. In May, he pitched a 9-inning, 15-strikeout shutout, which can be considered his signature performance of the year:

However, I have to raise some questions XD. If you look closely at some of Shane Bieber’s advanced stats this year, it seems like he shouldn’t be performing this well:

A quick recap: Hard-hit rate refers to the probability of a batted ball having an exit velocity of 95 mph or higher. wOBA is weighted on-base average, which weights different hitting outcomes to more comprehensively evaluate offensive ability; xwOBA is wOBA adjusted based on data like exit velocity.

As you can see, Shane Bieber’s pitches are hit very hard, even ranking among the worst in the league.

Furthermore, Shane Bieber’s excellent strikeout ability is completely baffling. Before this year, including his minor league stats, his K/9 value was at most in the low 9s, and more often at a level of 7 or 8. However, his K/9 value this year suddenly surged to 11.07, which is the level of a true strikeout pitcher. So, what changes has Shane Bieber made?

Reduced Fastball Strategy

In recent years, many pitchers in the league have started to realize that many hitters are quite good at hitting fastballs, so they have begun to reduce their fastball usage (for those interested in this topic, you can check out my other article: A Brief Discussion on the “Pitchers Love to Throw, Hitters Love to Hit” Fastball Phenomenon). Shane Bieber is one such example:

You can see that this year he has significantly reduced his fastball percentage and increased the frequency of his various off-speed pitches, allowing him to more fully showcase the effectiveness of each of his pitches. In addition to changing his pitch mix, I also noticed that Shane Bieber’s off-speed grip seems to have changed, which has increased both the spin rate and velocity of his pitches this year!

Changed Pitching Pattern

What? Didn’t we just talk about the change in pitch mix? What other pitching pattern changes are there?

Don’t rush~ Let’s look at the image below.

Shane Bieber’s pitch selection in different counts from 2018-2019
(Red: Four-seam fastball; Yellow: Slider; Purple: Curveball; Green: Changeup; Orange: Sinker)

The image on the left shows Shane Bieber’s pitch mix in different counts in 2018, and the one on the right is for 2019. I want to draw your attention to the parts I’ve highlighted with square boxes:

We will find that Shane Bieber’s pitching pattern in hitter’s counts is significantly different between these two years. Last year, when he was behind in the count or in full counts (2-0, 3-1, 3-2), he hardly dared to throw anything other than his four-seam fastball, but this year he has started to boldly use his various off-speed pitches. So, the question we want to ask is, is it because his off-speed pitch control has improved?

2018-2019 Shane Bieber Off-Speed Pitch Locations

This year, Shane Bieber’s probability of throwing off-speed pitches into the strike zone is 38.6%, which is 10.5 percentage points lower than last year. Since Shane Bieber has always been a pitcher with excellent control, rather than saying his control has worsened, it’s more accurate to say this is a deliberate adjustment he made. This adjustment, combined with the previously mentioned changes in the quality of his slider and curveball this year, has indeed yielded positive results.

So, in conclusion, this year Shane Bieber has been able to bravely use his off-speed pitches against hitters when behind in the count, and it’s not because his control of these pitches has improved, but because he discovered that his off-speed pitches have a great deceptive effect!

Does Shane Bieber Really Have Good Control?

What’s even more perplexing is that, in addition to Shane Bieber not throwing off-speed pitches into the strike zone this year as just mentioned, his overall on-paper control stats have actually worsened. Whether it’s the probability of throwing pitches into the strike zone (Zone%) or the ability to locate pitches on the edges of the strike zone (Edge%), Shane Bieber has shown a significant decline, even falling below the league average!

Normally, if a player exhibits such changes, one would reasonably expect their performance to decline, or at least their walks to increase! But in fact, Shane Bieber’s BB/9 this year is almost at the same high level as last year, ranking 14th among starting pitchers, because he is almost always successful in inducing hitters to chase pitches outside the strike zone.

According to FanGraphs data, hitters’ O-Swing% (out-of-zone swing rate) against Shane Bieber this year is 34.7%, nearly 4 percentage points higher than last year, and also over 3 percentage points higher than the league average this year; meanwhile, hitters’ O-Contact% (out-of-zone contact rate) has significantly decreased this year, nearly 7 percentage points lower than last year, and more than 10 percentage points lower than the league average!

In simple terms, the key point is that Shane Bieber possesses the ability to “induce hitters to swing at pitches outside the strike zone, and miss, even when he doesn’t throw them into the strike zone.”

Conclusion

This year, Shane Bieber has been able to evolve from a pure control pitcher into a pitcher who combines both strikeout and control abilities. The main reasons for this are that he started to use off-speed pitches extensively, throwing a suitable number of pitches outside the strike zone. His pitches also happen to have excellent deceptive qualities for hitters due to some reason (possibly increased velocity and spin rate of his slider and changeup), making hitters easily swing at them. Furthermore, he bravely uses his various off-speed pitches when behind in the count and in full counts, making it difficult for hitters to anticipate, and this has yielded very good results.

Some might wonder, what about Shane Bieber’s high hard-hit rate and average exit velocity against him that I mentioned earlier?

No worries, the Indians actually have a Gold Glove-caliber defensive lineup. Besides Francisco Lindor, other infielders like Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis, and José Ramírez all have above-average defensive skills in the league. While the outfield defense this year might not be Gold Glove level, overall it’s still above average. If you look at the advanced defensive metric UZR/150, the Indians rank first in all of MLB. So, even if the ball is hit hard, the players behind Shane Bieber can give him peace of mind!

Finally, let’s watch a video of Shane Bieber’s three consecutive strikeouts in the All-Star Game!

Data Sources: FanGraphs, MLB Savant, MLB.com, Prospect Digest https://www.prospectdigest.com/2018/02/20/cleveland-indians-top-10-prospects-for-2018/

Video Source: MLB.com

Cover Image Source: Cleveland Indians official website PC: Dan Mendlik/Cleveland Indians