Carlos Santana, 33 years old this year, has always been known for his excellent plate discipline. Since his MLB debut in 2010, his walk rate ranks 6th in all of MLB, even one spot higher than hitting phenom Mike Trout. He’s also a decent power hitter, averaging over 20 home runs per year, and his career wRC+ before this year was a high 121. However, after returning to his old team, the Indians, from the Phillies this year, his performance has elevated to a whole new level. Carlos Santana, whose career batting average was only 0.247 before last year, has seen his batting average soar to 0.294 this year, approaching the .300 mark. Coupled with his consistent plate discipline, his on-base percentage has reached 0.414, ranking 4th in all of MLB. And with 31 home runs hit so far, his wRC+ is as high as 148!

Carlos Santana’s Hitting Stats This Year Compared to Previous Years

Stat Batting Average On-base Percentage Slugging Percentage wRC+
2010~2018 0.247 0.363 0.442 121
2019 0.294 0.414 0.549 148

Hitting the Ball on the Ground?

If we compare Carlos Santana’s launch angle this year to previous years, we’ll find that his launch angle this year is the lowest since 2015, at 11 degrees (the Statcast system only started in 2015, so data can only be tracked from then). This number is also slightly lower than the MLB average launch angle of 12 degrees this year. This data tells us that Carlos Santana has a particular preference for hitting the ball downwards this year, a point echoed by his batted ball profile:

From the chart above, it’s clear that Carlos Santana’s ground ball rate (blue line) this year is a career-high 46%, a figure significantly higher than the MLB average. His fly ball rate (yellow line) also shows a noticeable downward trend. So, how has this adjustment helped Carlos Santana’s performance?

The answer is: a significant decrease in the rate of weakly hit fly balls.

Before this year, Carlos Santana’s annual infield fly ball rate was almost always much higher than the league average. However, this year his infield fly ball rate has significantly decreased, falling to a level below the league average.

Let’s look at another metric. In the MLB Savant database, based on launch angle and exit velocity, six different types of batted ball quality are categorized: Barrel, Solid Contact, Flares/Burners (the author is at a loss for words, but it’s also a hard-hit ball XD), Poorly/Under (hit on the bottom edge of the ball), Poorly/Topped (hit on the top edge of the ball), Poorly/Weak (weakly hit ball). We analyzed the rate of poorly hit fly balls by Carlos Santana this year, specifically those categorized as Poorly/Under (hit on the bottom edge of the ball) and Poorly/Weak (weakly hit ball). The result shows that Carlos Santana’s rate of poorly hit fly balls is also the lowest since 2015.


 Weak Fly Ball Rate (Poorly/Under, Poorly/Weak)
2015 65.9%
2016 69.5%
2017 65.5%
2018 65.3%
2019 61.5%

In summary, Carlos Santana has indeed lowered his launch angle and very likely changed his contact point, making his fly balls more solidly hit.

However, readers might ask, isn’t such a high ground ball rate generally detrimental to hitting performance?

That’s true, as ground balls are usually easier to field and less likely to result in extra-base hits. But what if they are hard-hit ground balls?

Hard-hit ground balls are more likely to get through the infield defense. And indeed, this year Carlos Santana’s overall exit velocity has increased, with ground balls showing the most significant increase in speed.

 

  Ground Ball Exit Velocity
2018 87.5 mph
2019 92.0 mph

Fast ground balls are not enough; the key is to find gaps in the defense and get through them. This has actually always been Santana’s weakness, as he is one of the most shifted hitters in the league. This year, when he bats left-handed, his shift rate is 79.5%, ranking 15th in the league; last year, his shift rate was even higher at 85.5%, ranking 4th in the entire league. Therefore, his ground ball pull rate has significantly decreased this year, very likely to break through shifts. Combined with the increased ground ball exit velocity this year, this minimizes the damage from ground balls caused by adjusting his launch angle.

  Pull Rate Center Field Rate Opposite Field Rate
2018 59.9% 30.5% 9.6%
2019 48.9% 41.8% 9.3%

Batting Stance Change

FanGraphs columnist Jake Mailhot also commented on Carlos Santana’s changes this year on June 13th, mentioning that Santana made adjustments to his batting stance this year.

Carlos Santana in 2018

via Gfycat

Carlos Santana in 2019

via Gfycat

The first GIF shows Carlos Santana in 2018, and the second one is from 2019.

It can be seen that Santana’s stance in 2019 is more upright and stable, with less body movement during the swing. Moreover, his hitting motion appears more effortless and fluid compared to 2018. This change in batting stance may also be a significant reason for Santana’s excellent performance this year.

Conclusion

Instead of blindly following the fly ball revolution, Carlos Santana lowered his launch angle and changed his batting stance, ushering in a career year for himself. This year, his ground balls are hit harder, and adjusting his pull frequency makes him less susceptible to shifts. At the same time, his fly balls are hit more solidly, no longer being weakly hit pop-ups. With José Ramírez and Francisco Lindor not performing at their previous year’s level, Santana will be a crucial piece for the Indians as they contend for a Wild Card spot, and even reclaim the top spot in the AL Central!

Main References:

Jake Mailhot(2019/06). Carlos Santana Goes Another Way. FanGraphs. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/carlos-santana-goes-another-way/

Other References:

FanGraphs, MLB Baseball Savant

GIF Sources: https://gfycat.com/alarmedplumpkudu-baseball, https://gfycat.com/impressionablethornybelugawhale-cleveland-indians-miami-marlins-baseball

Cover Image Source:

MLB Indians Official Website PC: Ed Zurga/Getty Images